10-17-2013 03:02 PM

Ireland: The eighth austerity budget



“TOO long a sacrifice can make a stone of the heart,” said Michael Noonan, Ireland’s finance minister, quoting Yeats, to justify an easing of austerity measures when he presented his 2014 budget to the Irish parliament on October 15th. This time the government inflicted less fiscal pain than it had originally planned. Austerity fatigue is growing among the public. And relations between the coalition partners, Fine Gael and Labour, are starting to fray. The two parties are keen to avoid any repeat of 1987, when they were also in a coalition and failed to tackle an earlier Irish economic crisis. At that time the government broke up after a disagreement over the budget—and Fianna Fail came back into power.
Since 2008, successive Irish governments, in seven budgets, have taken €28 billion ($38 billion) out of the economy in spending cuts and tax rises, which amounts to 17% of today’s GDP. Mr Noonan, introducing the latest (eighth) austerity budget, has eased the burden of adjustment marginally, providing some relief to the public while throwing a political lifeline to Fine Gael’s junior partner. He took €600m less than the €3.1 billion in savings specified under the terms of a €67.5 billion bail-out programme that Ireland agreed with the European Union, IMF and European Central Bank in 2010.

The government’s move to signal the beginning of the end of austerity comes as Ireland prepares to leave the bail-out programme in December, and follows a strong rebuff by Irish voters. The coalition was expected to win easily a referendum on October 4th on the abolition of the Senate, the upper house of parliament. It lost narrowly, which was a particular blow to Enda Kenny, the Fine Gael prime minister. A recent opinion poll showed Labour Party support dropping to 6%, less than a third of its 2011 general election vote.
How well placed is the Irish economy to complete a successful and durable exit from its bail-out programme? The indicators are encouraging. Since 2010 the government has met all the targets set by the troika of international lenders. Yields on ten-year Irish sovereign bonds have fallen below 4%, and Ireland has accumulated substantial cash balances, some €25 billion, as a backstop.
The economy moved out of recession in the second quarter of 2013, with 2% GDP growth forecast for 2014. Unemployment, which peaked at over 15% in 2012, fell to 13.3% in September, helped by high levels of emigration and increased jobs growth. The property market shows signs of a sustained recovery. And though he failed to offer all the savings hoped for in 2014, Mr Noonan expects to achieve a lower budget deficit next year than the programme asked for. Nevertheless, the budget strategy remains a gamble on the government meeting its 2014 budget targets as well as an export-led recovery.
The day three years ago when a Fianna Fail-led coalition was forced to ask for an international bail-out was regarded as Ireland’s day of infamy. December 15th this year, when Ireland hopes to exit the bail-out, is being seen as the end of an economic emergency. According to Mr Noonan, “Ireland will have been handed back her purse.” It will be a good deal lighter, and emptier, than before.



Continue Reading >>